Understanding consumer behavior in the plant-based meat market: Insights from Bayesian network analysis

In recent years, plant-based meat (PBM) products have gained increasing attention as alternatives to conventional meat, driven by health, ethical, and environmental concerns. Despite their growing market presence, PBM remains a niche product, facing barriers such as high prices, limited availability, skepticism toward sensory attributes, and food neophobia. Understanding the determinants of consumer intention to adopt PBM is therefore crucial. This study investigates the factors shaping PBM purchase intentions by integrating key constructs from the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), the Norm Activation Model (NAM), and habit-based theories. An online survey was conducted among a sample of 988 mainly Italian consumers, and the collected data were analyzed using Gaussian Bayesian Networks (BNs), which allow the identification of complex probabilistic dependencies among variables. The results confirm the central role of attitudes and perceived behavioral control in directly influencing intention to include PBM in one’s diet, while personal norms exert a weaker but positive effect. Subjective norms influence intention indirectly through perceived behavioral control, highlighting the importance of market availability for novel food products. Habitual meat consumption affects attitudes and personal norms but does not directly impact intention, whereas resistance to change plays a marginal role. Overall, the BN approach provides robust insights into the structure and strength of relationships among behavioral drivers, uncovering both theoretically grounded and emerging links. These findings contribute to the literature on PBM consumer behavior and offer useful implications for marketing strategies and future research on potentially causal mechanisms underlying sustainable food choices.