The Impact of Volcanic Eruptions on Tropical Hydroclimate

Volcanic eruptions exert a profound influence on tropical hydroclimate, including interannual variability associated with the El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation. This review synthesizes recent advances in understanding these impacts through an energy framework that links radiative forcing to shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and global monsoon systems. While global responses are robust in climate models, regional expressions remain uncertain due to biases and limitations in both simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions. Nonetheless, consistent patterns emerge-such as ITCZ displacement and reduced monsoon precipitation-that align with energetic theory, offering a physically grounded explanation for observed hydroclimatic anomalies following eruptions. This framework also provides a basis for estimating potential hydroclimate impacts of future volcanic events. Volcanic eruptions strongly influence tropical hydroclimate, but the mechanisms linking radiative forcing to large-scale responses are not fully understood. We assess evidence from climate models and paleoclimate reconstructions, noting robust global responses but regional differences due to model biases and data limitations. The energy framework provides a physically based foundation for anticipating tropical hydroclimate responses to future volcanic eruptions. Consistent patterns emerge such as ITCZ shifts and weakened monsoons, explained by energy theory and underpinned by observed posteruption climate anomalies.