We propose a set of novel non-macro-based uncertainty indicators that rely on the frequency of Google searches (NM-GSIs) for the following health-, environmental-, security-, and political-related topics: “Symptom” “Pollution” “Terrorism” and “Election”. By means of VAR investigations, we document that an intensification of people interest in non-macro-based topics harms the US real economic activity. In particular, NM-GSI shocks generate (i) a significant drop in consumer credit and (ii) a mild decrease (increase) in production (unemployment) levels. Noteworthy, rising non-macro-based uncertainty is found to have stronger influence on the outstanding level of consumer credit than rising macro-based uncertainty. Our findings suggest that increasing interest in specific non-macro-based topics might be associated with raising people's anxiety. A battery of robustness checks confirms our main findings.
|Data di pubblicazione:||2019|
|Titolo:||Non-Macro-Based Google Searches, Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity|
|Rivista:||RESEARCH IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE|
|Digital Object Identifier (DOI):||http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.12.007|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||2.1 Articolo su rivista |