We propose a set of novel non-macro-based uncertainty indicators that rely on the frequency of Google searches (NM-GSIs) for the following health-, environmental-, security-, and political-related topics: “Symptom” “Pollution” “Terrorism” and “Election”. By means of VAR investigations, we document that an intensification of people interest in non-macro-based topics harms the US real economic activity. In particular, NM-GSI shocks generate (i) a significant drop in consumer credit and (ii) a mild decrease (increase) in production (unemployment) levels. Noteworthy, rising non-macro-based uncertainty is found to have stronger influence on the outstanding level of consumer credit than rising macro-based uncertainty. Our findings suggest that increasing interest in specific non-macro-based topics might be associated with raising people's anxiety. A battery of robustness checks confirms our main findings.

Non-Macro-Based Google Searches, Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity

Donadelli, M.;Gerotto, L.
2019

Abstract

We propose a set of novel non-macro-based uncertainty indicators that rely on the frequency of Google searches (NM-GSIs) for the following health-, environmental-, security-, and political-related topics: “Symptom” “Pollution” “Terrorism” and “Election”. By means of VAR investigations, we document that an intensification of people interest in non-macro-based topics harms the US real economic activity. In particular, NM-GSI shocks generate (i) a significant drop in consumer credit and (ii) a mild decrease (increase) in production (unemployment) levels. Noteworthy, rising non-macro-based uncertainty is found to have stronger influence on the outstanding level of consumer credit than rising macro-based uncertainty. Our findings suggest that increasing interest in specific non-macro-based topics might be associated with raising people's anxiety. A battery of robustness checks confirms our main findings.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3708318
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