Fostering just transition in the Italian automotive ecosystem: Firm-level insights on EV transition risks and pathways

The global automotive industry is undergoing a profound transformation driven by the shift to electromobility, which is reshaping supply chains and reallocating value from traditional European and U.S. suppliers toward emerging Asian firms specializing in batteries and electric components. This transition raises pressing concerns about job losses and economic disruption in established automotive regions, particularly in Europe, highlighting the urgent need for a “just transition.” Despite its importance, fragmented stakeholder approaches and limited academic attention have hindered cohesive debate and actionable policy guidance. This study advances understanding by proposing a novel methodological framework that links firms’ product portfolios and economic characteristics to their exposure to the technological and market risks associated with the green transition with an innovative composite indicator. The purpose is to cluster firms using an original dataset of Italian automotive suppliers to assess their occupational outlooks in the context of the electric vehicle transition. The findings provide new insights into the dynamics of the automotive ecosystem, identify key challenges for suppliers, and offer evidence-based recommendations to support a sustainable and equitable transition toward electromobility.