Modelling of appropriate approaches, supporting tools, and enablers of circular economy in the construction sector of a developing country using Generalised Linear and Ordered Logit Models: The case of Nigeria.

Authors: Christian Jonathan; Uba Matthew Ndubuisi; Oluwaseun Bello; Theresa Ojile Abstract The construction sector in developing countries is resource-intensive and waste-generating, yet the adoption of circular economy practices remains fragmented and poorly aligned across project life-cycle stages. This study models the perceived appropriateness of circular economy approaches in the Nigerian construction sector and identifies the supporting tools and enablers required for their effective implementation. Using survey data collected from formal and informal construction stakeholders, the analysis adopts a stage-specific framework covering the raw material/manufacturing, design, construction, in-use, and end-of-life stages. Generalised Linear Models with a logit specification are employed to examine determinants of high appropriateness for circular approaches, while Ordered Logit Models are used to assess the relevance of supporting tools and enablers. The results reveal strong life-cycle heterogeneity, with economic benefits dominating perceptions during construction and end-of-life stages, while environmental and social benefits are more influential upstream and during use. Awareness and experience play a complementary but secondary role in the model estimates. The findings imply that circular economy policies should be stage-specific, combining regulatory and environmental instruments upstream with targeted economic incentives, capacity building, and market development measures at operational and downstream stages. The study provides empirical, context-sensitive evidence to support circular construction policy and practice in developing economies. While focused on Nigeria, the framework and insights are transferable or adaptable to other developing economies with similar socio-economic and institutional conditions.