Energy transitions under anti-environmentalism via Markov chain modeling

We analyze the effects of anti-environmentalism on the likelihood of success of the energy transition required to achieve sustainable development. We study the adoption process related to a green technology in a population formed by two sub-groups, environmentalists and anti-environmentalists, who are and are not concerned with environmental outcomes, respectively. The individual adoption decision is determined by environmental attitudes and social factors such that there exist important feedback effects within and between groups. The complexity of social dynamics and the underlying uncertainty may lead the presence of even a small group of anti-environmentalists to preclude the achievement of a green transition, especially when such agents strongly oppose the new technology or when the noise in the stochastic dynamics is sufficiently large. From a policy perspective, this implies that fighting the spread of anti-environmentalism, despite its marginal role in our society, is essential to promote a greener future.