In the last years, prediction of sport records has received increased attention by the scientific community. In particular, it is of great interest the evaluation of the goodness of a record. The application of extreme value theory in this context is quite natural. In this work, we use the Gumbel model to analyze the annual speed records in men’s and women’s 100-meter sprint races from 2001 to 2024. We propose the use of a new calibration procedure in order to correctly estimate the probability of future records and the expected time needed to break the current world record.
Improved prediction of 100-meter sprint records
Giummole', Federica;Lambardi Di San Miniato, Michele;Mameli, Valentina
2025-01-01
Abstract
In the last years, prediction of sport records has received increased attention by the scientific community. In particular, it is of great interest the evaluation of the goodness of a record. The application of extreme value theory in this context is quite natural. In this work, we use the Gumbel model to analyze the annual speed records in men’s and women’s 100-meter sprint races from 2001 to 2024. We propose the use of a new calibration procedure in order to correctly estimate the probability of future records and the expected time needed to break the current world record.
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