Understanding policy-volition interactions in urban ecological governance: A simulation framework based on SD-ABM coupling

As urban ecological challenges intensify, understanding how different policy instruments influence stakeholder behavior has become central to designing effective governance strategies. This study develops a coupled system dynamics (SD) and agent-based modeling (ABM) framework to simulate the evolution of participation willingness across four key governance agents: municipal economic departments, environmental regulators, enterprises, and the public. Two governance scenarios—administrative directives and bidirectional incentive mechanisms—are examined to assess how macro-level regulation interacts with micro-level decision-making. Results show that while command-and-control policies induce initial compliance, they are vulnerable to minor disturbances, leading to rapid disengagement. Static incentives improve participation but are limited by their inability to adapt to changing behavioral dynamics. In contrast, dynamic incentive mechanisms significantly enhance system stability by enabling real-time feedback and adaptive recalibration. The model also reveals that enterprise heterogeneity influences responsiveness to different policy tools, highlighting the need for tiered and context-specific strategies. This mechanism-driven framework contributes a transferable tool for analyzing policy-volition interactions and provides strategic insights for implementing adaptive governance in urban ecological systems.