Modelling mangrove social-ecological systems – a review

Mangrove social-ecological systems (SES) involve the dynamic relationships between mangrove ecosystems and human communities that depend on and influence these environments. This article explores progress in biophysical and socio-economic modelling approaches by selecting 74 peer-reviewed studies published up to April 2024. Selected documents show that 32% of studies adopt integrated modelling, 26% use empirical methods, 23% employ GIS-based techniques and 19% use a mixed approach. Data sources include remote sensing (46%), primary and secondary databases (26%), survey data (21%), and various models (7%). Key tools for mangrove SES modelling include mental or conceptual models like DPSIR, integrated assessment models, Actor-Network models, Motivation and Ability and Sustainable Livelihood frameworks, and ecosystem management models. Progress in understanding human-nature interactions within mangrove ecosystems comes from integrated approaches combining ecological and socio-economic factors in the analysis. Challenges, however, remain, including the need for high-resolution spatial and temporal data, improved modelling of complex feedback mechanisms between ecological and social components, and more effective integration of local stakeholder knowledge and perspectives into model design and decision-making processes. This review emphasises the critical role played by collaboration among scientists, policymakers, and local communities to enhance mangrove ecosystem resilience and sustainability. To address the challenges, we propose a generalised conceptual model developed upon the studied literature, with a specification for Bangladesh, to facilitate exchanges, synergies and integration in future research and applications to preserve mangrove ecosystem services amid growing environmental and socio-economic pressures.