Understanding Russian Hybrid Warfare against Europe in the energy sector and in the future ‘energy-resources-climate’ security nexus

To avoid escalations to full kinetic (military) wars is imperative to win the non-kinetic part of the so-called “hybrid warfare”, which use both kinetic and non-kinetic methods. The goal of the non-kinetic methods of hybrid warfare, or as others call it “grey zone” activities, or “subthreshold” tactics, is to defeat hearts and minds, as well as pockets, of adversaries, with social, political, and economic tools. This article focuses on energy as the crucial sector of the economic tools, and specifically uses an innovative approach, what the author calls the ‘energy-resources-climate security nexus’, as a new battleground for future strategic competition and hybrid warfare between Europe, Russia and other rivals. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine Putin engaged Europe with non-military hybrid warfare. The hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia especially in the energy sector have posed challenges the EU and NATO, who were unprepared but two organizations showed resilience and adaptation, starting to fight back. The problem is not only the Western dependence on Russian energy but also how the green transition pushed by climate change, that could be exploited with hybrid warfare. In the future is important to increase NATO-EU cooperation to fight other rivals too, like China, that could use new hybrid threats, especially because of the energy transition.