A Consumption-Based Integrated Framework for Subnational Absolute Environmental Sustainability Management

As human consumption expands, four environmental footprints (EFs) exceed the planetary boundaries (PBs) at the global scale. Managing absolute environmental sustainability (AES) based on PBs and EFs at the subnational level is crucial for policy insights. However, a consumption-based AES management framework still needs to be developed. A framework, including five nexus environmental pressures embodied in the supply chain, was developed and tested in our study across China's 30 provinces to address this knowledge gap. The framework involved three steps: (a) assessing AES for five environmental pressures, (b) measuring environmental surplus and overshoot and composition of EFs, and (c) identifying priority areas for AES management. The results showed that only some provinces are sustainable for three impact-oriented indicators, especially those with larger populations. Moreover, the embodied environmental pressure mainly flows from the Northwest to Southeast China. For two resource-oriented indicators, over 74% of provinces are absolutely sustainable. From a nexus perspective, Shandong and Shanghai are identified as priorities for AES management due to their low IESI values of 0.32, 0.33, and 0.40, respectively, which means the worst performance. To improve their IESI, Shanghai needs to control the consumption of blue water-intensive products, while Shandong and Henan should consume fewer CO2 emissions and N- and P-loss-intensive products. This framework can clarify subnational responsibilities of environmental overshoots, guide sustainable development, and be widely used at the subnational level in countries worldwide.