Azerbaijan 2021: Towards a new beginning?

The Fall of 2020 represented a watershed in Azerbaijan’s contemporary history, as a result of the victory in the «44 Days War» over Nagorno-Karabakh against Armenia, on the one hand, and the start of natural gas export to European markets through the EU Southern Gas Corridor, on the other. These events marked the culmination of decades-long processes, which shaped both Azerbaijan’s foreign and domestic policy. Consequently, 2021 was characterized by Baku’s attempt to open a new chapter in the country’s post-Soviet evolution, in an ever-changing regional and international context. The attempt to put the Nagorno-Karabakh war behind meant investing on the rehabilitation and reintegration of the recently re-conquered territories, in the wider attempt to put forward new vision for regional development. Simultaneously, the inauguration of a gas export pipeline to south-eastern Europe propelled Baku to move towards a new phase in its national energy strategy, aimed at enhancing its role as critical EU supplier, while adapting to a possible post-oil development in the mid- and long-term. The article maintains that, in tackling a «new beginning», Azerbaijan seems stuck at a crossroads, still caught between the attempt to redefine its approach to both the dossiers and old habits and strategic thinking. This, in turn, may jeopardize the path towards a peace agreement with Armenia and endanger the long-term sustainability of a development model based primarily upon energy export.