Prediction of UK research excellence framework assessment by the departmental h-index

This paper proposes a new approach to study the outcomes of the research evaluation of departmental structures and to predict the results of the next research evaluation exercise. To this aim we use the information provided by the dynamics of the departmental h-index; hence, in the first part of the paper we propose two models for these dynamics: a linear and an exponential model. Moreover, we investigate its determinants, especially the influence of the structure by age of the department faculty. Afterwards, we build two new models that improve the goodness of fit for the outcomes of the research assessment: a linear model stemming from the assumption of linear dynamics for the departmental h-index, and a log-linear model consistent with the assumption of an exponential dynamics. These models are tested on data of the UK departments of four different scientific fields (Biology, Chemistry, Physics and Sociology) and the results show that this approach can be successfully applied.