Extreme value theory studies the extreme deviations from the central portion of a probability distribution. Results in this field have considerable importance in assessing the risk that characterises rare events, such as collapse of the stock market, or earthquakes of exceptional intensity, or floods. In the last years, application of extreme value theory for prediction of sport records have received increased interest by the scientific community. In this work we face the problem of constructing prediction limits for series of extreme values coming from sport data. We propose the use of a calibration procedure applied to the generalised extreme value distribution, in order to obtain a proper predictive distribution for future records. The calibrated procedure is applied to series of real data related to sport records. In particular, we consider sequences of annual maxima for different athletic events. Using the proposed calibrated predictive distribution, we show how to correctly predict the probability of future records and we discuss the existence and interpretation of ultimate records.

Extreme value prediction: an application to sport records

F. Giummolè
2019-01-01

Abstract

Extreme value theory studies the extreme deviations from the central portion of a probability distribution. Results in this field have considerable importance in assessing the risk that characterises rare events, such as collapse of the stock market, or earthquakes of exceptional intensity, or floods. In the last years, application of extreme value theory for prediction of sport records have received increased interest by the scientific community. In this work we face the problem of constructing prediction limits for series of extreme values coming from sport data. We propose the use of a calibration procedure applied to the generalised extreme value distribution, in order to obtain a proper predictive distribution for future records. The calibrated procedure is applied to series of real data related to sport records. In particular, we consider sequences of annual maxima for different athletic events. Using the proposed calibrated predictive distribution, we show how to correctly predict the probability of future records and we discuss the existence and interpretation of ultimate records.
2019
Proceedings of MathSport International 2019 Conference
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
fon-giu.pdf

accesso aperto

Descrizione: Articolo principale
Tipologia: Documento in Pre-print
Licenza: Dominio pubblico
Dimensione 579.46 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
579.46 kB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in ARCA sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10278/3715529
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus ND
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact