Multi-risk assessment of freshwater ecosystem services under climate change conditions

The aim of this work is to develop a multidisciplinary approach to (i) understand the dynamics of freshwater-related ecosystem services (ES); (ii) quantify the conjoined effects of climate and land use change on these ES; (iii) evaluate the effectiveness of different management scenarios; and (iv) provide appropriate indicators to support the identification of proper practices to improve ES management at the local level. First, we reviewed the complex effects of climatic and non-climatic drivers on the supply and demand of freshwater ecosystem services. Based on the literature, we proposed a conceptual framework and a set of indicators for assessing the above-mentioned impacts due to global change, i.e. climate change and human activities. Then, we checked their applicability to the provisioning services of two well-known case studies, namely the Po River basin (Italy) and the Red River basin (Vietnam). Second, we developed an integrated modeling approach to assess the conjoined impacts of land use and climate changes on the potential ecosystem services (i.e. water yield and nutrients retention) until 2050. This integrated approach is applied to the Taro river basin in the context of the PROLINE CE project, which focused on the sustainable use of freshwater in an integrated land use management approach. Finally, we integrated Bayesian Networks in ecosystem service model which enables identification of risks of human interaction on ecosystem, trade-offs among ecosystem services, and evaluation of different management scenarios. The outcomes of this work could be a valuable support to identify and prioritize the best management practices for sustainable water use, balancing the tradeoffs among services.