Analysis and management of multiple ecosystem services in social-ecological systems under a changing climate

This thesis aims to develop new methods for the analysis and management of multiple ecosystem services (ES) in the context of climate change. Taking the Venice lagoon (Italy) as case study, it focuses on two major research challenges in the ES field of study, that are, understanding how multiple ES are co-produced and interact, and how they can be managed sustainably. These challenges are addressed first through a conceptual viewpoint based on the social-ecological systems framework, which distinguishes between ES with “direct” and “mediated” flow type: the first occur directly through some ecological functions, whereas the second require the involvement of human activities, which can generate feedbacks on the same and/or other ES. This viewpoint is then translated into a dynamic ES model, which represents multiple ES together as a single network, accounting for their interactions and for the effects of drivers of change. This represents a significant step forward with respect to current ES models, which provide static snapshots of single ES. The modeling results highlight the importance of including the ES interactions, the absence of which remarkably affects the results. Finally, the modeling application is merged with a quantitative mapping of the multiple ES delivered by the Venice lagoon, aiming at analyzing the sustainability of the ES patterns. This analysis allows to delineate management trajectories for correcting the unsustainable ES patterns and preserving the ES delivery in the face of climate change. The joint analysis of multiple ES and their interactions, along with a sustainability-driven interpretation, seems crucial for the application of ES to management challenges in the context of climate change.