RUSSIA AND ARMENIA: THE COLLAPSE OF A CENTURIES-OLD ALLIANCE, Aldo Ferrari

I n September 2023, Azerbaijan attacked the Armenian-controlled area of NagornoKarabakh – Artsakh in Armenian. This territory, formally part of Azerbaijan but de facto controlled by Armenians, had been at the centre of a bloody conflict between Baku and Yerevan that lasted for over 30 years. The Azerbaijani offensive only lasted for 24 hours and led to the capitulation of the breakaway republic, putting an end to Nagorno-Karabakh’s history as a self-proclaimed entity. A mass exodus of about 120,000 people to Armenia began. For years now, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been negotiating a peace agreement that could bring about many potential “peace dividends” in terms of economic development, trade and regional connectivity, and social reconciliation between the two peoples. However, the two parties are yet to finalise this agreement, despite progress made in bilateral talks and numerous mediation attempts by the European Union (EU). After a brief historical overview, we shall review the main points of the controversy on both sides, the obstacles to long-lasting peace, and the stakes for the EU. The final section provides a few policy recommendations for the EU.