The evolution of (post) pandemic labour market outcomes of older workers in Europe

The extremely tight restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the economic activity in all countries, leading to exceptional work disruptions and substantial (temporary) layoffs. Recent literature documents the existence of an age bias in the recruitment of new employees, which makes older workers a vulnerable category when experiencing work disruptions. Using data from the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, we investigate to what extent having experienced work interruptions in the first wave of the pandemic might have affected the working careers of older workers. Our results indicate that having undergone work disruptions in 2020 is associated with a significantly higher probability of ending up as retirees or not employed in both 2021 and 2022. The effect is not homogenous among countries. While the estimate is not significant for Northern countries, it is significant for the other country clusters, the magnitude of the effect being larger in Central and Eastern European countries.