The International Politics of the Gulf

The international politics of the Gulf region are defined by the interplay of the local states and outside powers—primarily, in recent decades, the United States and more recently, in the economic sphere, China. The local states do not simply deal with each other on the basis of balance-of-power concerns, although those concerns are certainly present. With Arab nationalist, Islamic, and ethnic identities transcending Gulf borders, domestic security, and stability concerns are as important in the for- eign policies of the region’s states towards each other and outside powers. The Gulf ’s strategic role as the source of 60% of the world’s known petroleum reserves has given it enduring importance in global US strategy. Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, Washington took an increasingly direct military and political role there, culminat- ing with the US invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003. However, the failure of the United States to create a stable Iraqi regime and the multifaceted impact of the Arab uprisings highlight the local obstacles to outside power hegemony in the region, even if the would-be hegemon were the most powerful country in the world. The agree- ment reached between Iran and the major world powers in July 2015 after years of negotiation had the potential of ushering in a new, less confrontational phase in the international politics of the Gulf in addition to instituting significant checks on Ira- nian nuclear activities. However, the hostility displayed towards the deal by veteran American allies Saudi Arabia and Israel, and its eventual abandonment by the United States in 2018, highlights how the path to more cooperative relations between the two shores of the Gulf, let alone in the wider Middle East, is still bedevilled by a lack of mutual trust.