Electric cars as a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: methods, results and policy implications in Germany

Electric vehicles are usually perceived by policy makers and the general public as an attractive means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper we provide a rigorous assessment of the emissions resulting from the diffusion of electric vehicles. We make use of EMOB, a comprehensive model that provides a forecast and evaluation of alternative fuel vehicles diffusion in Germany in the next decades. As far as computation of emissions is concerned, our method differs from existing one by a “pivotal marginal” or “hourly marginal” emission computation that takes into account the predicted long-term time pattern of EV reloading. We obtain non-tailpipe emissions of around 75 g/km in 2020. Additionally, our findings cast serious doubts on the general claim that electric cars could be fed in with renewable energy in general, and with fluctuating excess supply of renewables (wind, solar) in particular.