Demand-Driven Structural Change in Applied General Equilibrium Models

This chapter analyzes the variations in industrial structure induced by income-sensitive patterns of final consumption, and how these changes can be captured by a multi-sector numerical model with a flexible demand system.We focus, in particular, on the estimation of parameters for an AIDADS (An Implicitly, Directly Additive Demand System) specification. We then test the latter by inserting it in the ENVISAGE global general equilibrium dynamic model, which is run under the SSP2 scenario from 2011 to 2050. It is found that time-varying income elasticity can generate sizable variations in the industrial structure. This finding has important practical implications, particularly when structural models are applied at a medium and long term horizon.