We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multi-dimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit dynamics with time-varying parameters and apply it to multi-layer temporal networks. The original contribution is threefold. First, in order to avoid over-fitting we propose a parsimonious parametrization of the model, based on a low-rank decomposition of the tensor of regression coefficients. Second, the parameters of the tensor model are driven by a hidden Markov chain, thus allowing for structural changes. The regimes are identied through prior constraints on the mixing probability of the zero-inflated model. Finally, we model the jointly dynamics of the network and of a set of variables of interest. We follow a Bayesian approach to inference, exploiting the Polya-Gamma data augmentation scheme for logit models in order to provide an efficient Gibbs sampler for posterior approximation. We show the effectiveness of the sampler on simulated datasets of medium-big sizes, nally we apply the methodology to a real dataset of nancial networks.
Matteo Iacopini (Corresponding)
|Data di pubblicazione:||2018|
|Titolo:||Bayesian Markov switching tensor regression for time-varying networks|
|Titolo del libro:||Bayesian Markov switching tensor regression for time-varying networks|
|Digital Object Identifier (DOI):||http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3192341|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||3.1 Articolo su libro|